Will the Tax Cut Work?

Robert Shapiro explora como se poderá avaliar o impacto dos cortes de impostos propostos por Bush.

The better question about the tax cuts is: Will they enable the economy to grow noticeably faster than the expected 3.6 percent next year? That could be tough: The CBO found that the president's original tax proposals—more far-reaching than those finally approved—would have scant impact on 2004 growth. The changes that passed are just very small in an $11 trillion economy—$49 billion this year and $135 billion in 2004. Still, if growth surpasses 3.6 percent, the president's supporters will credit it to his tax policy. (...)
Whatever the long-term costs, the dilemma for opponents of the policy is that in the short run, tax cuts leave nobody worse off—not even the low-income families locked out of the higher child credit—and lots of people get a little more post-tax income. President Bush only has to make the tax cut look good until November 2004. The rest of us will have to bear it for years.